Hello and welcome to our community! Is this your first visit?
Register
Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345
Results 41 to 43 of 43
  1. #41
    Moderator GLOC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Near Malmesbury, Wiltshire
    Posts
    3,068
    Likes (Given)
    3083
    Likes (Received)
    2176
    On a more serious note:

    From this paper - Bennett, M.H., 2004, Risk, perception and sport--the doctor as policeman? SPUMS, 34(2), pp. 75-80
    A few examples may serve to illustrate these concepts. During 2003, a rogue sniper was infamously active in the Washington DC area. Several individuals were shot whilst in public places such as petrol stations and shopping mall car parks. There was understandably widespread concern for the safety of residents, and many individuals were reported as driving long distances to avoid exposure in such places in the Washington area. One author calculated that during this time there was a 1 in 517,422 chance (p = 0.00002) of being shot by the sniper, while the risk of death through a motor vehicle crash over the average extra miles travelled was likely to be appreciably higher.
    and
    The consequences of the 1995 report of the UK Committee on Safety in Medicines illustrate the potential dangers. The Committee reported, accurately, that there was a 100% RR [relative risk] increase of significant thromboembolic disease associated with the use of the 3rd generation oral contraceptive, as compared to the 2nd generation.13 Following a flurry of concern, many women abandoned the preparation, resulting in an estimated 8,000 extra abortions in the UK, and an unknown number of unwanted pregnancies. The AR [absolute risk] increase was from 3 to 6 deep vein thromboses for each 1,000,000 users per year, equivalent to a NNH [numbers need to harm] with the new preparation of 333,333 before one additional clot was caused. It is highly unlikely that more harm could be caused by continuing the use of the oral contraceptive pill than was caused by ceasing it. In this case, poor but accurate risk communication probably harmed the community.
    Stats are great, but you need to make sure you are comparing apples with apples. This a real problem when the data does not exist, even anecdotally.

    Fundamentally we don't know the exposure (numbers diving each year in each 'discipline') nor do we have an accurate or consistent metric (fatalities per year (DAN); fatalities per dive (BSAC, but based on a flawed number of dives per year in my opinion); fatalities per hour in the water (most likely more useful but no-one uses it).

    The BDSG are conducting a survey this year to determine the demographic of the diving population with the help of the RNLI. I was involved in looking at the data capture forms and had some concerns about the results they would get back and what they would mean. There is a training session this Saturday for RNLI volunteers who will help in this survey but I am not sure that my concerns have been allayed.

    Regards
    Gareth

    www.imagesoflife.co.uk - Underwater Print Sales, Teaching and Stock Library
    www.cognitas.org.uk - Improving Safety by Challenging Current Practices
    www.divingincidents.org - Diving Incident and Safety Management System (DISMS)
    - 2014 Report here

    “Set your expectations high; find men and women whose integrity and values you respect; get their agreement on a course of action; and give them your ultimate trust.”

    “It is far better to be trusted and respected than it is to be liked.”

  2. #42
    Established TDF Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,293
    Likes (Given)
    50
    Likes (Received)
    773
    Quote Originally Posted by GLOC View Post

    Stats are great, but you need to make sure you are comparing apples with apples. This a real problem when the data does not exist, even anecdotally.

    Regards
    The data always exists, it is just whether you can accurately measure it I would argue that quite often the data being out in the open is a bad thing. See what journalists do with data when given questions regarding zero hours contracts. An organisation with an axe to grind asks the question:

    "Has your organisation ever hired anybody on a zero hours contract?"

    And companies that have once, a decade ago, hired one person on a zero hours contract, has to respond "Yes" - and we end up with bonkers headlines like "25% of companies use zero hours contracts to exploit workers" which simply isn't true, and then politicians that clearly have an axe to grind and also don't understand statistics coming out with this kind of stuff: BBC News - Andy Burnham calls for ban on zero hours contracts

    This is not the worst of it. Badly used, statistics caused hundreds of thousands of parents not to get the MMR vaccine, and the lack of vaccination caused the deaths of several people a few months ago. It has been proven that the analysis was drivel, and the "scientist" discredited for the harm done, but still parents are making the wrong decision on vaccinating their children because they don't understand that there isn't any actual evidence supporting the link to autism.

    So what do we expect the general diving population, many of which just don't understand statistics or analysis of them, would do with the stat suggesting that nobody has ever died on a KISS? Or that the Meg has a 1 in 40 death rate? Well of course we all run out to buy a KISS don't we. That would be the wrong thing to do. It fails to address why those deaths happened, and the manufacturers probably know it. By hiding the total numbers of users, units sold, or other info, they can prevent us from drawing all kinds of incorrect conclusions about what is or isn't safe. Because 90% of the general population can't or won't do their due diligence. They will just read the headline.

    Digs.

  3. #43
    TDF Member timmoranuk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Near NDAC
    Posts
    41
    Likes (Given)
    1
    Likes (Received)
    12
    Helps me prep the unit instead.....

    Oh if only, I get complaints about my dive kit cluttering up 'her kitchen'. Oh well will have to go and buy a new house with space for my dive kit so that will not impinge on her space !!


    Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk


 
Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •