The sea is getting the short straw with climate change

[gobfish1]

Oh dear my anti-virus went ballistic at that link.

Confirmation bias is a well understood thing though and something you have to take into account when looking at new evidence. For AGW the science is pretty much universally accepted by everyone bar the fruit loop element and those with fossil fuel interests (who are liars rather than people debating/contesting the actual data)

The data to support the various tipping points is still a bit sketchy I think, but the melting of the methane clathrates is under way and probably will be the start point of a sharp acceleration in heating that will confound attempts to limit CO2. This point is probably the start of the latest round of lies and bluster by the fossil fuel industry as it continues to seek out the last remaining value of current reserves. The Artic Methane Emergency Group has some good data (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/sear...rgency%20Group) for anyone interested.

I don't think Mr Putin or his many friends in the global political right will be much bothered though.

[edit] The blog is 2015 and suggests excessive heating in the Artic - which is what has happened[/edit]

Mr Putin is spending billion s on taking advantage of the situation.
Maybe the shortest shipping times will be better for the planet and the pocket s to .

If this was the west it would be a massive Green spin . Saving the world and all that .

[Chrisch]

Mr Putin is spending billion s on taking advantage of the situation.
Maybe the shortest shipping times will be better for the planet and the pocket s to .

If this was the west it would be a massive Green spin . Saving the world and all that .

Ye. Putin is certainly making billions from the increased oil and gas prices that's for sure. And you are right there is a lot of noise about shipping routes. It will be better for the shipping companies not the world.

LOL. Yes saving the world and all that. Maybe Johnson will be bigging it up? (If he is not too busy playing tennis with Putin's friends....)

[Paul Evans]

https://climatekids.nasa.gov/ocean/

😃



Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Divemouse]

The sea isn't just getting warmer, it's also getting more acidic so that anything that relies on a very narrow pH band for tissue building, such as molluscs and corals is basically fucked.

[Paul Evans]

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-climat...es-carbon.html

opps

[Chrisch]

There are many such tipping points Paul, most are agreed the Amazon has already undergone this process and is now a source of carbon not a carbon sequestration system. However the developments have little to no effect on human activity. We continue to pour out gigatonnes of CO2 and large parts of the world's population either don't give a shit or in some cases lie that it is not happening. On the news last night there was a news item about people crossing the Darrien gap, desperate to get to the US even though nearly all of them fail. Such people do not have the luxury of being able to address "green" issues. However, it was not that struck me but the level of self delusion that the refugees had. At the US border they were put in camps and many were stuck there for years. Not the "better life" they all fantasised about.

Our species has a fundamental flaw in that we can delude ourselves in the belief that there is something better if only we do x, y or z. This allows us to ignore the evidence and act against our actual real interests. Look at the growth of right wing politics round the world as people delude themselves that some greedy sack of shit will somehow make it better for them as opposed to the evidence which shows they are just in it for themselves. Often once the delusion takes hold people double down on it rather than admit they were wrong.

I would like to think that some event will take place and it will wake people the fuck up and we (all) will do "something". Maybe though that is me, deluding myself? There's a thought

[jturner]

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-climat...es-carbon.html

opps

Friday ramble warning!
It's stuff like this that just adds to my belief that we have got to do something about climate change, not only because of various quantifiable, clearly defined risks but because of the risks we don't know about yet or understand. This isn't likely to be the only nasty surprise waiting to be discovered. We barely understand the land-based sections of the biosphere let alone those in the oceans. People talk about the high cost of doing things to try to prevent the temperature rise but they're trying to do a cost/benefit analysis based solely on predictions and what is understood right now. The results are stated as some figure in cash terms... as usual, the capitalist view of life where everything's value and worth is defined solely as a cash sum, as if money was the ultimate yardstick for the universe. "We can't afford it and will have to adapt" but with no idea as to what we will have to adapt too. But apparently that is fine - the same models that get attacked for being pessimistic or unrealistic are fine if they support a different argument. Perhaps I'm being boring and conservative, but if I were planning on something that has the potential to affect my life and health (let alone every living thing on earth), I would consider it sensible, reasonable and responsible to assume worst-case and plan accordingly, trying to avoid straying into conditions and areas where I don't know what's waiting for me. As for the financial cost, the global capitalist system is a tired relic of a by-gone era where unlimited expansion was desirable and achievable, and is due for replacement anyway so perhaps it's time to let go of that old dogma. To me, this situation is inviting civilization to take a step forward and advance, as it has done so many times in the past. If we are not prepared to do that, history has plenty of lessons about those who refuse to make the fundamental changes when change is inevitable.

[notdeadyet]

This allows us to ignore the evidence and act against our actual real interests. Look at the growth of right wing politics round the world as people delude themselves that some greedy sack of shit will somehow make it better for them as opposed to the evidence which shows they are just in it for themselves. Often once the delusion takes hold people double down on it rather than admit they were wrong.

Very few politicians, either left or right, are going to act in your or my interest. It's the God dilemma, if God exists and he is all powerful then why would he care that you exist and if he does exist why would you bother worshipping him in that case? Our political class is exactly the same. Politicians are supposed to be there because we delegate the running of our country to them as paid managers. Does anyone believe for a second that actually happens? We are not the UK plc owners and shareholders, we are the minimum wage employees and it has been like that for centuries. For whatever reason, democracy has become us choosing who is going to tell us what to do. As I've said before, there needs to be some consequence to politicians screwing up. Failing to manage the country in the interests of the citizenry should be included under treason with the same punishments/sentencing. The revolving door of failed leadership needs to end and making political incompetence a criminal matter is something I would support. I think we've reached that point. I think we've also reached the point where there needs to be some very robust vetting and licensing of the people being allowed into politics and how parties choose the candidates put forward. Maybe even more power shifted to the civil service and the scope of what a politician can actually meddle with reduced. We fucked up the opportunity we had for free-for-all democracy in the 20th century and we're no different to a school being put into special measures. Except that's on a national (and probably global) scale.

[jturner]

Maybe even more power shifted to the civil service and the scope of what a politician can actually meddle with reduced.

From what I can see (as a new Civil Servant just in from the real world), this would probably be a mistake unless you want any kind of change to be slowed to a crawl. It's slow, dysfunctional and littered with incapable loud-mouthed sycophants and fossilised senior figures who should have been sent to the knacker's yard years ago. The rest of us consider it a win to get something done, even if it only a partially good job. People who should have been fired years ago can sit safe and sound.

Politicians bring in new blood and new ideas and have the power to shake things up. The problem is when they don't act with any kind of long-term vision or for the public good. Now I appreciate that such things are rare in any politician but that is what needs addressing rather than delegating it to the CS. That's just like letting the receptionist run the business because the CEO is a wally!

[Chrisch]

... People talk about the high cost of doing things to try to prevent the temperature rise but they're trying to do a cost/benefit analysis based solely on predictions and what is understood right now. The results are stated as some figure in cash terms... as usual, the capitalist view of life where everything's value and worth is defined solely as a cash sum, as if money was the ultimate yardstick for the universe. ....

The economic model is one of deferred costs. By putting the costs into the future the current population and their elected representatives move the cost from the here and now to an undefined point in the future. By the time the costs are due the politicians will be out of office and a significant percentage of the population will be dead, elderly or in retirement and not liable for the costs. This model has been used for a long time and therefore now is the first cross over point at which some of the electorate and population are bearing the first part of the payments.

The cost-benefit principle is therefore; we benefit and someone else pays. Anyone (IMHO) under 40 will be hit hard by the financial cost and anyone under 10 by the harsh reality of a climate that will not support the current level of population. My own belief is that the changes to our climate will be much faster and severe than 99% of the world thinks, but predicting the future is unwise and we may yet have a couple of decades before the real shit hits the fan. Either way if you are at school now you have a miserable future that is unthinkable to those of us coming up to or in retirement. No flying to Spain to play golf, no cruises round the Caribbean, no campervan winters in Portugal.

In the UK the scum that are the government have done almost enough to make protest illegal. I agree with Stuart they should be held to account but they are making that impossible. Again my opinion is that is deliberate because they 'know' what is coming and their view of the future is the same as mine. This trend is common around the world. Last gasp, get rich now before it is too late. I must assume they think the wealth they steal will see them through the disaster that is coming. Me, I doubt it. I guess we will see soon enough. Or at least our grandkids will.