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  1. #221
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jturner View Post
    I suspect they care only that Trump brings a large number of voters with him, so they'll back him, not because it's him, but because they want the Trump voters to become Republican voters. Whether or not that transposition will take place is another question but I'd lay a fair wager that he won't get convicted by the senate for this very reason.
    I don't see much of a "Trump effect" in the 2016 election. The demographics break down much the same as Johnson/Brexit in terms of who drive the shift to the far right - white, male and old(ish)and not very well educated.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...idated-voters/

    My hypothesis is that this demographic segment is driven by an induced fear by the likes of Bannon and Murdoch. At the extreme you have the Proud Boys and the conspiracy theories that de-humanise anyone left of Mrs Thatcher. You will recall the attempt to find the Pizza basement full of leftie kiddie fiddlers.

    The success of this strategy (in both the US and the UK) is pushing politics to the far right libertarian edge of the spectrum and rewarding the already rich with much greater wealth and the poor with much greater poverty. Income inequality has risen markedly in the last decade. My personal hypothesis is this is mostly driven by the desire to extract the last few billions from fossil hydrocarbons. It is (if I am right) therefore no coincidence that Trump has overridden a lot of the green legislation from Obama like cafe and has promoted coal and oil. Likewise the UK versions have been driven by climate change deniers UKIP and the "get rid of the green crap" Tories.

    Interesting that this ecological disaster policy is so soon after the exit: https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/news/...neonicotinoids

    Hopefully Biden will start a change of direction.
    We give 350m a week to the EU. Let's give it to Dido Harding instead.

  2. #222
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jturner View Post
    I suspect they care only that Trump brings a large number of voters with him, so they'll back him, not because it's him, but because they want the Trump voters to become Republican voters. Whether or not that transposition will take place is another question but I'd lay a fair wager that he won't get convicted by the senate for this very reason.
    It will be interesting to see. I think trump Jnr's declaration that the Republican party now belonged to trump would've put the wind up more than a few, in addition, trump's actions saw a massive loss in the 2018 mid-terms, a loss in the presidential election (as significant to Corbyn losing the red wall in some ways), and now a loss of the senate, so I'm inclined to think they're more likely to take a stance against him. Mitch McConnel certainly seems to be making noises in that direction, the house vote yesterday was partisan, with 10 republicans voting for impeachment.

    [Edit : ignore this bit, seems impeachment is needed first What I didn't realise was that, within the senate, the vote against future office is different to the vote to convict on impeachment. Impeachment requires a 2/3 majority, where as against future office only requires a simple majority... McConnel delaying the hearing will push it into a democratic controlled senate, so it if that is the case, and the future office vote is not reliant on impeachment, then I'll be surprised if that doesn't get passed.]
    Last edited by Stuart Keasley; 14-01-2021 at 05:42 PM.
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  3. #223
    Established TDF Member Paulo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Keasley View Post
    It will be interesting to see. I think trump Jnr's declaration that the Republican party now belonged to trump would've put the wind up more than a few, in addition, trump's actions saw a massive loss in the 2018 mid-terms, a loss in the presidential election (as significant to Corbyn losing the red wall in some ways), and now a loss of the senate, so I'm inclined to think they're more likely to take a stance against him. Mitch McConnel certainly seems to be making noises in that direction, the house vote yesterday was partisan, with 10 republicans voting for impeachment.

    What I didn't realise was that, within the senate, the vote against future office is different to the vote to convict on impeachment. Impeachment requires a 2/3 majority, where as against future office only requires a simple majority... McConnel delaying the hearing will push it into a democratic controlled senate, so it if that is the case, and the future office vote is not reliant on impeachment, then I'll be surprised if that doesn't get passed.
    I was under the impression that a vote about disqualification from future office could only take place if he is impeached?
    Remember anything you read on the internet was probably written by some guy sitting at home in his underpants! Including this !!

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  4. #224
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulo View Post
    I was under the impression that a vote about disqualification from future office could only take place if he is impeached?
    Wasn't sure, although just read something that suggests so... so yes, impeachment would need to be passed first, shame that it is.
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  5. #225
    Established TDF Member Paulo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Keasley View Post
    Wasn't sure, although just read something that suggests so... so yes, impeachment would need to be passed first, shame that it is.
    Not really a shame. Otherwise parties with a majority could just disqualify at random any opponent that they wanted or felt needed to be taken down a few pegs.

    The process is democratic. The supermajority needed is to ensure that it is bipartisan
    Remember anything you read on the internet was probably written by some guy sitting at home in his underpants! Including this !!

    Illegitimi non carborundum

  6. #226
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulo View Post
    Not really a shame. Otherwise parties with a majority could just disqualify at random any opponent that they wanted or felt needed to be taken down a few pegs.

    The process is democratic. The supermajority needed is to ensure that it is bipartisan
    Yeah, fair point
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  7. #227
    Established TDF Member jamesp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulo View Post
    Not really a shame. Otherwise parties with a majority could just disqualify at random any opponent that they wanted or felt needed to be taken down a few pegs.

    The process is democratic. The supermajority needed is to ensure that it is bipartisan
    I can think of at least two votes that should have had a "Super Majority" attached to them, Welsh devolution (passed by 0.5% margin, Turnout 46% iirc) and that f**kfest from 2016.


    CF the 1979 Welsh Devolution bill, required devolution to achieve 50% of votes cast, and 40% of total available vote to pass; it went down 4:1.
    Last edited by jamesp; 15-01-2021 at 11:18 AM.

  8. #228
    Prior Member Tim Digger's Avatar
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    But a fundamental question about democracy is who should be asked. Like did anyone ask the rest of Wales if they wanted Monmouthshire to be part of Wales, No the referendum was Monmouthshire only. Bit silly I know but illustrates the point should everyone affected by a decision have the right to vote on it?
    Evolution is great at solving problems. It's the methods that concern me.
    Tim Digger

  9. #229
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tim Digger View Post
    But a fundamental question about democracy is who should be asked. Like did anyone ask the rest of Wales if they wanted Monmouthshire to be part of Wales, No the referendum was Monmouthshire only. Bit silly I know but illustrates the point should everyone affected by a decision have the right to vote on it?
    Everyone is affected by everything in some way, trump and co's occupation of the White House for 4 years has sent huge repercussions around the world.
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  10. #230
    Established TDF Member steelemonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Keasley View Post
    Everyone is affected by everything in some way, trump and co's occupation of the White House for 4 years has sent huge repercussions around the world.
    I can't help but think what may have happened if something like the Kuwait invasion took place during the trump term.
    Don't suppose I would be typing this now as the nuclear fall out would be drifting down.............
    Paul.
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    Human beings were invented by water as a means of moving itself from one place to another.


 
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