The Imperial paper is worth a read - very clear and well written
Evidence and fact based
Get it here - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
they compare Mitigation and Suppression as approaches
extract from the "Discussion" section near the end -
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID19
and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have
informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks. However, we emphasise that
is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such
disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How
populations and societies will respond remains unclear.
Note that the policy which we were following till Monday was going to lead to (i) 250,000 deaths "even if" if the NHS could cope and treat everybody, but (ii) actually an 8 fold shortfall in NHS capacity
"Suppression is the only viable strategy"
The new suppression policy is going to be a long haul, and hard, we need everyone bought in and doing what is needed
please try to make sure people around you understand this
This is fact and science based, the work is published and open, the consequences of not suppressing it are unthinkable
just now, bravado will kill our vulnerable and our old in their thousands
I am trying to explain this to some members of my family, please do your bit too
this is not scaremongering - its science - please don't reject it, just read it and reflect on it
we can beat this, and save our parents, grandparents, asthmatic friends, and others, and we can then free up resources again for our existing sick, young and old - but we absolutely have to take it seriously and put the effort in
in the end only we, as a group, can do this