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  1. #1
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    COVID-19 - what we need to do

    The Imperial paper is worth a read - very clear and well written

    Evidence and fact based

    Get it here - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    they compare Mitigation and Suppression as approaches


    extract from the "Discussion" section near the end -

    Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
    surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
    most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
    isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
    ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
    care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
    predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

    In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
    of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
    estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
    around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

    We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
    social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
    profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
    stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

    Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID19
    and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have
    informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks. However, we emphasise that
    is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such
    disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How
    populations and societies will respond remains unclear.

    Note that the policy which we were following till Monday was going to lead to (i) 250,000 deaths "even if" if the NHS could cope and treat everybody, but (ii) actually an 8 fold shortfall in NHS capacity

    "Suppression is the only viable strategy"

    The new suppression policy is going to be a long haul, and hard, we need everyone bought in and doing what is needed

    please try to make sure people around you understand this

    This is fact and science based, the work is published and open, the consequences of not suppressing it are unthinkable

    just now, bravado will kill our vulnerable and our old in their thousands

    I am trying to explain this to some members of my family, please do your bit too

    this is not scaremongering - its science - please don't reject it, just read it and reflect on it

    we can beat this, and save our parents, grandparents, asthmatic friends, and others, and we can then free up resources again for our existing sick, young and old - but we absolutely have to take it seriously and put the effort in

    in the end only we, as a group, can do this

  2. #2
    I still don't have a member
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    Thank you for posting.

    Testing for C-19 ceased for general public 2 weeks ago however if you are an MP you get tested!!!! The only people being tested are in hospital and their very close contacts, as a result scientists can realistically only guesstimate the actual number of infected people. As it is known quite a lot of people get a very mild infection which can easily be confused as being a cold they can/ will happily go out and about sharing the virus as they cough. Walking through the hospital where my work is based the number of people not covering their mouths when they cough was shocking. I wished I had spay sanitiser like air freshener to spray in their vicinity!! The research facility I work in has been locked down and we have been sent home to work from home. I am deemed vulnerable as I have Diabetes (type 2) but am otherwise well but I do have concerns. I would like to think I am young enough to be considered for ITU if I got it badly. Difficult decisions will be made as hospitals fill up as despite BoJo thinking JCB or Rolls Royce can magically make ITU ventilators there will not be enough.
    A fully paid up member of the CRAFT Club

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  3. #3
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    When all this is over, and now if we can, we need to support and remember the companies who step up


    First nomination- Brewdog

    https://twitter.com/BrewDog/status/1240208876408123393

    "Say hello to Punk Sanitiser

    To help with the shortages, we have just started working on making hand sanitiser at our distillery in Scotland. We are determined to do everything we can to try and help as many people as possible stay safe.

    It's time to keep it clean"

    and

    "Just to be clear, we will not be selling the sanitiser. But giving it away to those who need it."



    Take a bow Brewdog

    And this must be the easiest 'do the right thing' ever ! Let's support Brewdog !

    https://www.brewdog.com/uk/shop

  4. #4
    Established WTF Member Spirit of Guernsey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnCheeky Monkey View Post
    When all this is over, and now if we can, we need to support and remember the companies who step up


    First nomination- Brewdog

    https://twitter.com/BrewDog/status/1240208876408123393

    "Say hello to Punk Sanitiser

    To help with the shortages, we have just started working on making hand sanitiser at our distillery in Scotland. We are determined to do everything we can to try and help as many people as possible stay safe.

    It's time to keep it clean"

    and

    "Just to be clear, we will not be selling the sanitiser. But giving it away to those who need it."



    Take a bow Brewdog

    And this must be the easiest 'do the right thing' ever ! Let's support Brewdog !

    https://www.brewdog.com/uk/shop
    https://www.facebook.com/pg/WhiteRockBrewery/posts/
    There are four varieties in society: the lovers, the ambitious, observers and fools. The fools are the happiest.
    Hippolyte Taine French critic and historian (1828-93)

  5. #5
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Where does one begin? For such a long time we have followed a path that had this baked in. Mistrust of authority has become widespread and it mingles with complacency and the inability to understand that this type of situation is easy to stop in the outset if you take it seriously - when there is little evidence at all that it is a problem. Our PM is a twice sacked liar and fairly useless at anything practical. Our society is more divided than it has been since the war of the roses. Selfishness is now celebrated rather than discouraged.

    The real issue is the environment. No matter what happens with this infection the environment will continue to be the greatest threat to humanity. It is only just past the point where there has been little evidence of a problem and a wholesale campaign of lies to cover up what evidence there was. The panic buying will see thousands of tonnes of food wasted, thousands of tonnes of fossil CO2 spewed out in additional lorries and ships moving stuff about. If we are lucky that will be offset by planes being grounded.

    Maybe all those people self isolating can use the time to reflect on what kind of society they want to live in? There is room for improvement.

  6. #6
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    Where does one begin? For such a long time we have followed a path that had this baked in. Mistrust of authority has become widespread and it mingles with complacency and the inability to understand that this type of situation is easy to stop in the outset if you take it seriously - when there is little evidence at all that it is a problem. Our PM is a twice sacked liar and fairly useless at anything practical. Our society is more divided than it has been since the war of the roses. Selfishness is now celebrated rather than discouraged.

    The real issue is the environment. No matter what happens with this infection the environment will continue to be the greatest threat to humanity. It is only just past the point where there has been little evidence of a problem and a wholesale campaign of lies to cover up what evidence there was. The panic buying will see thousands of tonnes of food wasted, thousands of tonnes of fossil CO2 spewed out in additional lorries and ships moving stuff about. If we are lucky that will be offset by planes being grounded.

    Maybe all those people self isolating can use the time to reflect on what kind of society they want to live in? There is room for improvement.
    Chris, seriously, how does any of the above help our current situation, offer factual and practical advice, or celebrate the people who have stepped up early to throw whatever they can in to help?

    We're all fully aware of how much you hate the current Tory government, Boris etc, people in general, everyone's a liar/idiot/racist/bigot etc god knows you bring it up at every possible opportunity. But how about, just for once, you simply try and exercise a little bit of self control, try and keep your angst with the world in general internalised?
    Last edited by Stuart Keasley; 19-03-2020 at 08:38 AM.
    Please visit bottlefish for my personal web site, Quay Cameras to chat to me about the cameras and kit that I sell

  7. #7
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnCheeky Monkey View Post
    The new suppression policy is going to be a long haul, and hard, we need everyone bought in and doing what is needed

    please try to make sure people around you understand this
    A couple of things to add in:

    - I've heard a few people draw parallels between this and WWII; one old chap just this morning, sat outside Costa, happily chatting to everyone that walked past, explaining patiently to the young person on the next table that his generation was better prepared because they knew how to cope with rationing. He had no idea that it isn't about rationing; food will still be available, the shops will still stay open. It's more about the 24 hour 7 day a week blitz of guided missiles looking for people just like him.

    - A colleague told me of people in his area (North London) who have had people trying to gain access to their properties under the pretence of doing door to door Covid-19 tests. It was only a matter of time before this started to happen. So whilst we need to isolate, we also need to step up on neighbourhood awareness. I will be printing of an intro card and posting it through the postbox of the people surrounding me later on today, please consider doing something similar.
    Last edited by Stuart Keasley; 20-03-2020 at 07:20 PM.
    Please visit bottlefish for my personal web site, Quay Cameras to chat to me about the cameras and kit that I sell

  8. #8
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Keasley View Post
    ..
    We're all fully aware of how much you hate the current Tory government, Boris etc, people in general, everyone's a liar/idiot/racist/bigot etc god knows you bring it up at every possible opportunity. But how about, just for once, you simply try and exercise a little bit of self control, try and keep your angst with the world in general internalised?
    Why?

    Just to make wankers feel better?

  9. #9
    Established TDF Member Doomanic's Avatar
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    Because it makes you one of the wankers. Give it rest for a while, please.
    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    Seriously, forget about sidemount - it's bollocks.

  10. #10
    bottlefish Stuart Keasley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    Why?

    Just to make wankers feel better?
    As above, and as I said, you're continual repetitive rhetoric just make the conversation ugly, negative, bile filed, you achieve nothing with it, and your saying absolutely nothing new, that you've already said literally thousands of times before. Generally speaking, for me at least, it's become just an annoying whine that gets automatically blotted out, I know many others I've talked to feel much the same.

    But when Cheeky Monkey has managed to find strength, rise above, and lead with a post containing decent factual information and well placed objective advice, that you should choose to try and trash it with your usual crap on Post #5 is rude beyond belief.

    So please, just keep your trap shut, on this thread at least, unless you have something positive to add to the conversation.
    Please visit bottlefish for my personal web site, Quay Cameras to chat to me about the cameras and kit that I sell


 
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