Hand sanitiser

[Neilwood]

So everyone should be scared and panicked about infections that maybe there - but we are not sure.

I bet that within a few weeks infection rates will be zero and tens
If not hundreds of thousands of people will have lost their jobs,

And if they didn't instigate the partial lock down, hundreds of thousands would likely be dead in a few weeks (using the model that has been developed from other countries outbreaks). The predictions were 250,000 or more DEATHS if left unchecked.

Italy are suffering to the point that over 80's will likely get NO treatment (apologies for the torygraph link)

Better a few weeks of financial pain (which will most likely be mitigated by some unprecedented steps from government, banks, businesses etc such as mortgage holidays, business rate freezes, preferential loan rates etc) than thousands of deaths.

[Darren A]

I used to respect you and your posts but this claptrap is irresponsible as well as stupid

Fine, let’s just see how it pans out.

I fear for Virus X, this just isn’t it.

[Barrygoss]

Fine, let’s just see how it pans out.

I fear for Virus X, this just isn’t it.

Yep, agree, this isn’t a world killer. It’s 12-14 weeks of an overloaded healthcare system and a load of boomer remover

Want to kill your parents?

The morbidity rates for the boomer generation aren’t nice.

B

[UnCheeky Monkey]

Fine, let’s just see how it pans out.

I fear for Virus X, this just isn’t it.

Read this and stop being such a flat earther

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/uk-55000-coronavirus-cases-says-chief-scientist-12411781/

I'm genuinely appalled that anyone who can tie their own shoelaces can be so wilfully blind to the best available evidence

Vallance wants testing ramped up. The WHO wants testing ramped up. We have screwed up hugely on testing and as a result have to work from the best scientific estimate available which is 55,000 actual cases.

Attitudes like yours make the case for aggressive imposed and enforced restrictions in movement and civil liberties

[Neilwood]

Yep, agree, this isn’t a world killer. It’s 12-14 weeks of an overloaded healthcare system and a load of boomer remover

Want to kill your parents?

The morbidity rates for the boomer generation aren’t nice.

B

That is exactly the issue. Italy have crossed the threshold in a number of regions where the choice has been made to stop treating over 80's to allow ITU beds to be used for people who are more likely to survive.

[Darren A]

Hand sanitiser

Read this and stop being such a flat earther

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/uk-55000-coronavirus-cases-says-chief-scientist-12411781/

I'm genuinely appalled that anyone who can tie their own shoelaces can be so wilfully blind to the best available evidence

Vallance wants testing ramped up. The WHO wants testing ramped up. We have screwed up hugely on testing and as a result have to work from the best scientific estimate available which is 55,000 actual cases.

Attitudes like yours make the case for aggressive imposed and enforced restrictions in movement and civil liberties

As I said, let’s wait and see. I suspect the rate of growth will reduce over the next few weeks, then Boris will claim credit, but warn that growth was damaged by CV not brexit.

[SteveI]

Here are some sobering numbers:

COVID-19 Infectio fatality ratio (IFR) - 0.9%
4.4% of infections are hospitalised
30% of those hospitalised will require critical care
50% of those in critical care will die
Estimated R0 (number of cases each one infected person will pass the virus to) is 2.4
Without all the isolation measures (and much more) 81% of the GB population will be infected during the epidemic.
Equivelant to approximately extra 510.000 death in the UK and 2.2 million death in the US.

Quote: "For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries ".

Let's stop worrying about the ecomonical impact for this year.

[UnCheeky Monkey]

As I said, let’s wait and see. I suspect the rate of growth will reduce over the next few weeks, then Boris will claim credit, but warn that growth was damaged by CV not brexit.

Here is the actual science from actual experts

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This is the report the government u turn is based on

The 'wait and see' approach would have resulted in literally millions of deaths (the 250k figure assumed all were treated but the NHS would have been overwhelmed 8 times over so the figure would have been millions)

I'm really quite angry at your pathetic indifference

[Darren A]

I used to respect you and your posts

I joined the Yorkshire Divers forum in 1999, various things have happened, but many of the same members then are members now (apart from a few cocks who have left - BTS/NDY cough cough.

Anyway, no one has every said that about my posts - regardless of anything you say/post - I love u xx 😘

[UnCheeky Monkey]

I joined the Yorkshire Divers forum in 1999, various things have happened, but many of the same members then are members now (apart from a few cocks who have left - BTS/NDY cough cough.

Anyway, no one has every said that about my posts - regardless of anything you say/post - I love u xx 😘

What can I say. I was wrong.

[Darren A]

I'm really quite angry at your pathetic indifference

And I’m really quite angry about the scaremongering you are touting which is driving the panic buying in shops

[UnCheeky Monkey]

And I’m really quite angry about the scaremongering you are touting which is driving the panic buying in shops

Read. The. Science.

Listen to Vallance.

It is not scaremongering you utter cock

[Darren A]

you utter cock

#benice

[UnCheeky Monkey]

Can’t see it :-)

Worked out how to use the Ignore List function

Much better

For anyone not terminally (possibly quite literally) stupid who is interested that Imperial report is pretty sobering but worth a look to understand the competing pretty awful choices

[Darren A]

Can’t see it :-)

Worked out how to use the Ignore List function

Much better

Excellent, best get yourself back under the covers until the panic subsides.