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Thread: Hand sanitiser

  1. #421
    Prior Member Tim Digger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iain Smith View Post
    FWIW, “mild” symptoms can be very short lived - the NHS Healthcare worker advice is “back at work seven days after onset” as it appears that no viable virus is still shed at that point.

    In contrast, those who end up ventilated and survive (40-50% mortality) are typically spending between two and three weeks on the ventilator. This isn’t necessarily because of any damagin effects of the virus, but because of the uncontrolled inflammatory response which it elicits.

    So yes, public figures clearing the virus in a matter of days while significant numbers remain in hospital is entirely in keeping with the range of presentations being seen. However, “recovery” is probably also underreported as I don’t think those data are being specifically collected.
    Indeed one dose of penicillin in Meningococcal septicaemia is enough to kill all the bacteria causing it but people still die of the inflammatory response, the overwhelming excessive mobilisation of the body trying to rid itself of the bugs. Failed attempts to control this excessive response litter intensive care medicine for the last three decades! The trick is to keep people alive while the virus dies and the body settles down towards normal. Recovery over the following 6-8 weeks should then occur.
    Evolution is great at solving problems. It's the methods that concern me.
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  2. #422
    Established TDF Member Paulo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tim Digger View Post
    Indeed one dose of penicillin in Meningococcal septicaemia is enough to kill all the bacteria causing it but people still die of the inflammatory response, the overwhelming excessive mobilisation of the body trying to rid itself of the bugs. Failed attempts to control this excessive response litter intensive care medicine for the last three decades! The trick is to keep people alive while the virus dies and the body settles down towards normal. Recovery over the following 6-8 weeks should then occur.
    More importantly, how is COVID-19 for weight loss?
    Remember anything you read on the internet was probably written by some guy sitting at home in his underpants! Including this !!

    Illegitimi non carborundum

  3. #423
    Prior Member Tim Digger's Avatar
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    The hope that there are very large numbers of people who have had or will have soon a mild illness is the only hope that the epidemic will die down naturally. This information from antibody tests will inform relaxing of isolation in 3-4 weeks time. If there are not enough or they are not immune to subsequent infections then we are doomed to recurrent outbreaks as soon as distancing measures are relaxed.
    That is the vital information.
    Evolution is great at solving problems. It's the methods that concern me.
    Tim Digger

  4. #424
    Prior Member Tim Digger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulo View Post
    More importantly, how is COVID-19 for weight loss?
    The problem with any inflammatory response is that there is considerable loss of weight! It is nearly all muscle. In my bout of sepsis my quads disappeared, OK they were never immense but during recovery it was all I could do to walk a mile up Upper Teesdale the 50 steps at the end took for ever.
    Evolution is great at solving problems. It's the methods that concern me.
    Tim Digger

  5. #425
    Established TDF Member Paulo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tim Digger View Post
    The problem with any inflammatory response is that there is considerable loss of weight! It is nearly all muscle. In my bout of sepsis my quads disappeared, OK they were never immense but during recovery it was all I could do to walk a mile up Upper Teesdale the 50 steps at the end took for ever.
    Probably not worth it so
    Remember anything you read on the internet was probably written by some guy sitting at home in his underpants! Including this !!

    Illegitimi non carborundum

  6. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulo View Post
    Probably not worth it so
    Upper Teesdale ?


    Glorious country

    Not quite Yorkshire though

  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by John63 View Post
    Upper Teesdale ?


    Glorious country

    Not quite Yorkshire though
    My Mother in law would have your head off at the ankles. It used to be part of Yorkshire.

  8. #428
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by graham_hk View Post
    What is somewhat ironic is that you are here freely giving your opinion yet dismissing someone who arguably (if Dr Lee is a real person), as a pathologist, has a more qualified opinion than yours...
    If he is a real person then he is a retired medical professional and as such almost certainly far less "qualified" than me to talk about data analysis. If he had given an opinion on the transmission methodology I would pay attention to it. That aspect of the numbers is something I have no knowledge of - only what is on the news. It is actually critical if you want to analyse the outcomes with any real hope of gaining meaningful insight on the data (well the data that is available to us).

    Quote Originally Posted by graham_hk View Post
    Again ... just shows the numbers don't add up
    This is the problem and it is not helped by right wing oped nonsense about how it is all "overblown" written in shit like the Spectator.

    I am going to overextend my knowledge and give an opinion - please note this is an opinion with no data to back it up.

    In Spain (on the news) I can see that an ice rink in Madrid is being used as a morgue. There are not enough funeral services to bury people and the corpses are stacking up. Now in my opinion there must be a degree of extra capacity in the industry of disposing of bodies. So I am inclined to think that the number of deaths that we are currently experiencing falls outside of the "norms" that would be within the parameters of normal variance ('flu, car crashes etc)

    This persuades me to believe that this event is outside of what could normally be expected. (The contra-theory is of course that the virus lockdown is reducing funeral service availability - this must be considered).

    As you say rightly Graham without testing it is hypothesis. Therefore we - society - can take an approach of caution and look at the available figures and conclude this is a real threat, or be blasé and take the view that, for some inexplicable reason, something is to be gained from talking it up. One hypothesis might be that the "emergency powers" are something the government might want. I'll buy into that - it is plausible. But if that were the case surely the more authoritarian regimes like Bolsonaro would be doing it? He's one of the "deniers".

    A simple explanation is there is a SARS virus with a mortality rate of 1 percent or greater that is readily transmitted. For me therefore the information that is lacking and would be more useful is the data about transmission. I have read several "news items" that contradict one another. For example on the viability duration of the virus on different surfaces. That's important to me. We are still getting deliveries - could they be infected? I have made every effort to put in place all procedures to minimise actual physical contact - as have the courier businesses.

    It is the transmission that will drive the spread and as such it is the critical data point to the eventual penetration of the population. It is the reason - the sole reason - for the current lockdown. That's what I would like to get a better understanding of. The Spectator article does not give anyone a better understanding but it does add erroneous weight to the "it's all bollocks, it's just the 'flu" meme.

  9. #429
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    If anyone is interested and really, really bored and wants something to do for the entire day you can see the war-game of a theoretic pandemic that is pretty close to today's reality here:

    http://centerforhealthsecurity.org/o...ise/livestream

    It's American but still OK despite that. I have only had a brief look, I need to do the end of month accounts today. (Also not yet really that bored if I'm honest)

  10. #430
    Cheeky Monkey... Paul Evans's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tim Digger View Post
    The hope that there are very large numbers of people who have had or will have soon a mild illness is the only hope that the epidemic will die down naturally. This information from antibody tests will inform relaxing of isolation in 3-4 weeks time. If there are not enough or they are not immune to subsequent infections then we are doomed to recurrent outbreaks as soon as distancing measures are relaxed.
    That is the vital information.
    I think a lot, even most, people don't get this.

    It's highly likely given our woeful initial response that it will hit in a second wave no matter what, possibly becoming endemic.
    “Attitude is a choice. Happiness is a choice. Optimism is a choice. Kindness is a choice. Giving is a choice. Respect is a choice. Whatever choice you make makes you. Choose wisely.”
    Roy T. Bennett, The Light in the Heart


 
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