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Thread: Hand sanitiser

  1. #221
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    Okay 1950 cases (I guessed 2000). That hasnít changed for a few days,

    Bloody ridiculous. People losing jobs, businesses folding - all for a stupidly small chance of causing death.

    If you are worried about dying from this, buy a lottery ticket. You are more likely to win than die.
    That's misinformed rubbish IMO sorry, and liable to make people cavalier

    Gov's own figure is guessed at 55,000 today.

    Each person typically infects roughly 2 others it seems.

    I am neither mathematician nor epidemiologist but doesn't it - very - roughly go like this -

    55k
    +110k new infected = 165K
    the 110k infect a new 220k = 385k total
    the new 220k infect a new 440k = 825k
    the 440k infect a new 880k = 1.7m
    the 880k infect a new 1.75m = 3.45m
    the 1.75m infect a new 3.5m = 6.95m
    the 3.5m infect a new 7m = 13.95m
    the 7m infect a new 14m = 27.95m
    the 14m infect a new 28m = 56m

    Fatality rate could be 2% or 1 in 50 of infected, which on figures above would be roughly 1 in 70 of population

    Lottery win rate is 1 in 14,000,000

    You need to ignore the figures now for "confirmed" cases. They are just barely testing any more so that figure is totally meaningless. Start at 55k today and work up vaguely as above

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart Keasley View Post
    Confirmed/tested cases is very different from total cases.
    So everyone should be scared and panicked about infections that maybe there - but we are not sure.

    I bet that within a few weeks infection rates will be zero and tens
    If not hundreds of thousands of people will have lost their jobs,

  3. #223
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    So you reckon 55,000 - government who like to spread fear and panic say 2,000

    Hmm
    55,000 is the figure given by Sir Patrick Vallance, not me

    It is the best estimate available

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/...have-covid-19/

    Ffs do some reading rather than spouting this crap

  4. #224
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    So everyone should be scared and panicked about infections that maybe there - but we are not sure.

    I bet that within a few weeks infection rates will be zero and tens
    If not hundreds of thousands of people will have lost their jobs,
    I used to respect you and your posts but this claptrap is irresponsible as well as stupid

  5. #225
    Established TDF Member Barrygoss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnCheeky Monkey View Post
    That's misinformed rubbish IMO sorry, and liable to make people cavalier

    Gov's own figure is guessed at 55,000 today.

    Each person typically infects roughly 2 others it seems.

    I am neither mathematician nor epidemiologist but doesn't it - very - roughly go like this -

    55k
    +110k new infected = 165K
    the 110k infect a new 220k = 385k total
    the new 220k infect a new 440k = 825k
    the 440k infect a new 880k = 1.7m
    the 880k infect a new 1.75m = 3.45m
    the 1.75m infect a new 3.5m = 6.95m
    the 3.5m infect a new 7m = 13.95m
    the 7m infect a new 14m = 27.95m
    the 14m infect a new 28m = 56m

    Fatality rate could be 2% or 1 in 50 of infected, which on figures above would be roughly 1 in 70 of population

    Lottery win rate is 1 in 14,000,000

    You need to ignore the figures now for "confirmed" cases. They are just barely testing any more so that figure is totally meaningless. Start at 55k today and work up vaguely as above
    Ro is being quoted as 3.

    We need it below 1 to defeat it.

    B
    Rebreathers are like women; they pretend to love you, whilst taking all your money and trying to kill you.

  6. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    So everyone should be scared and panicked about infections that maybe there - but we are not sure.

    I bet that within a few weeks infection rates will be zero and tens
    If not hundreds of thousands of people will have lost their jobs,
    And if they didn't instigate the partial lock down, hundreds of thousands would likely be dead in a few weeks (using the model that has been developed from other countries outbreaks). The predictions were 250,000 or more DEATHS if left unchecked.

    Italy are suffering to the point that over 80's will likely get NO treatment (apologies for the torygraph link)

    Better a few weeks of financial pain (which will most likely be mitigated by some unprecedented steps from government, banks, businesses etc such as mortgage holidays, business rate freezes, preferential loan rates etc) than thousands of deaths.

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnCheeky Monkey View Post
    I used to respect you and your posts but this claptrap is irresponsible as well as stupid
    Fine, letís just see how it pans out.

    I fear for Virus X, this just isnít it.

  8. #228
    Established TDF Member Barrygoss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    Fine, letís just see how it pans out.

    I fear for Virus X, this just isnít it.
    Yep, agree, this isnít a world killer. Itís 12-14 weeks of an overloaded healthcare system and a load of boomer remover

    Want to kill your parents?

    The morbidity rates for the boomer generation arenít nice.

    B
    Rebreathers are like women; they pretend to love you, whilst taking all your money and trying to kill you.

  9. #229
    I used to be Cheeky UnCheeky Monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren A View Post
    Fine, letís just see how it pans out.

    I fear for Virus X, this just isnít it.
    Read this and stop being such a flat earther

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/uk-55...tist-12411781/

    I'm genuinely appalled that anyone who can tie their own shoelaces can be so wilfully blind to the best available evidence

    Vallance wants testing ramped up. The WHO wants testing ramped up. We have screwed up hugely on testing and as a result have to work from the best scientific estimate available which is 55,000 actual cases.

    Attitudes like yours make the case for aggressive imposed and enforced restrictions in movement and civil liberties

  10. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrygoss View Post
    Yep, agree, this isn’t a world killer. It’s 12-14 weeks of an overloaded healthcare system and a load of boomer remover

    Want to kill your parents?

    The morbidity rates for the boomer generation aren’t nice.

    B
    That is exactly the issue. Italy have crossed the threshold in a number of regions where the choice has been made to stop treating over 80's to allow ITU beds to be used for people who are more likely to survive.


 
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