Gov's own figure is guessed at 55,000 today.
Each person typically infects roughly 2 others it seems.
I am neither mathematician nor epidemiologist but doesn't it - very - roughly go like this -
+110k new infected = 165K
the 110k infect a new 220k = 385k total
the new 220k infect a new 440k = 825k
the 440k infect a new 880k = 1.7m
the 880k infect a new 1.75m = 3.45m
the 1.75m infect a new 3.5m = 6.95m
the 3.5m infect a new 7m = 13.95m
the 7m infect a new 14m = 27.95m
the 14m infect a new 28m = 56m
Fatality rate could be 2% or 1 in 50 of infected, which on figures above would be roughly 1 in 70 of population
Lottery win rate is 1 in 14,000,000
You need to ignore the figures now for "confirmed" cases. They are just barely testing any more so that figure is totally meaningless. Start at 55k today and work up vaguely as above