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  1. #2391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    Yes, I think that is the most likely. It will also be the case for Land Rover. The most precarious is going to be the Ford engine plant. JLR have said they will take back in house the outsourced engines at Bridgend (preplanned not Brexit related). It will be interesting to see if the engines go to Coventry or mainland Europe.

    For me the worry is Honda Swindon because my cousin works there. They don't have an obvious place to go other than UK which is reassuring but in the longer term I cannot see them staying here (assuming the crash out). Another unknown is the Luton van plant which currently makes the Renault Traffic. That could be a quick exit.
    As you and a few others have said, I can foresee a drip feed of jobs away from the UK as plants need retooled. For firms of this size, not only does tariff free trade matter (10% tariff has been mentioned IIRC) but also just in time material supply. If raw materials or component parts are held up at the border (as will be the case unless we get a deal in place), that could cost the firms millions in lost production - a risk that these firms are unlikely to allow to remain long term.

  2. #2392
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neilwood View Post
    As you and a few others have said, I can foresee a drip feed of jobs away from the UK as plants need retooled. For firms of this size, not only does tariff free trade matter (10% tariff has been mentioned IIRC) but also just in time material supply. If raw materials or component parts are held up at the border (as will be the case unless we get a deal in place), that could cost the firms millions in lost production - a risk that these firms are unlikely to allow to remain long term.
    True. For complex products like a car there are a lot of non tariff barriers as well. Rules of origin and stuff like that. I have no doubt that big manufacturers have a team in place looking into all the issues and that the big red button is a real option. The big companies can stand it but the smaller people in the supply chain will not cope. Then there are all the related activities, job agencies, food and accommodation, taxis and the like. We are seeing this knock on effect as things downturn. It's not existential but it makes things just that little bit harder every time.

  3. #2393
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    Just heard on Sky News that new Qashqai will go to Sunderland.

    That must be good news for the folk of Sunderland, until you remember that it was only a couple of weeks ago that Nissan said the X-Trail would be there too........

  4. #2394
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    IIRC the Qashqai sells well in UK and not a big seller in the rest of the EU. Given the amount sunk into the plant it would make sense to continue to build at least something for the next few years. Plus the Tories' bung of 80 million must help

    Tempting as it is to wish ill on the turkeys in their quest for xmas I really don't want to see the UK close down all it's manufacturing. Sadly I fear whatever happens the polarity of the debate will continue with both sides claiming "victory" such as it is.

  5. #2395
    Established TDF Member Barrygoss's Avatar
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    So under a no deal Brexit - lorries to be waved through Dover
    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...exit-1-5878767

    taking back control

    B
    Rebreathers are like women; they pretend to love you, whilst taking all your money and trying to kill you.

  6. #2396
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrygoss View Post
    So under a no deal Brexit - lorries to be waved through Dover
    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...exit-1-5878767

    taking back control
    Thank goodness that everyone shipping things to the UK is completely honest and that gangs haven't yet thought of bribing drivers to carry stowaways or the like.

  7. #2397
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrygoss View Post
    So under a no deal Brexit - lorries to be waved through Dover....
    I hate to keep repeating myself but this has to be the outcome. We can import anything we like and not bother with any kind of checks at all. It is only exports that need to be checked as they are subject to whatever import controls the other country places on them. Having softened up the public with all the scaremongering about food shortages the government will declare an emergency and a "temporary" relaxation on all import controls to avoid shortages.

    If we come back to the Britannia Unchained project Professor Minford advocates no import controls or tariffs whatsoever, a unilateral "free market" tariff free free for all. He says this will result in cheaper goods as we can buy any old shit from anywhere that wants shut of it. Logically he is right. The issue is what do we export from here into other markets that are restricted? So for example we will not be able to sell beef as it might be US hormone treated beef and relabelled as UK beef. The EU - as an example - will not buy it. As a result UK meat is almost certainly not going to be exportable. As Professor Minford, the Nobel prize winning economist quite rightly says this will result in the destruction of the UK manufacturing industry, agriculture and fishing. Which he thinks is a bit of a shame but a price worth paying for cheap shit food.

    Clearly there is going to be a problem with the open border in Ireland. So somehow, somewhere along the line, the UK has to compromise. Either the DUP must suck it up and have a customs border in the Irish sea or we - the UK - cannot export to Ireland (Rep of) so the cross border traffic only goes one way. How you stop NI produce crossing the border (especially a live cow in a field) I have no idea. So we cannot. So we cannot let in any old shit as Patrick wants and so we open the border to EU stuff but not the US hormone beef.

    Now we are in a trade dispute with the US as they want to sell us shit beef but we cannot buy it. Trump puts the US first as per his promise to the US public (fair enough) and stops UK exports to the US (on which we make a surplus). So we are really looking at a crash in exports in the short to medium term. As I have said many times with a widening balance of payments deficit and a current account deficit the outcome must - at some point - be a currency crash. A massive fall in our currency value with a virtual ban on exports (which would otherwise benefit from a low value currency) will quickly wipe out the gain from low cost produce bought on the world market versus the current arrangements and quotas.

    This is why Minford is wrong and I am right. But people believe him because he is more famous than me. Fair enough. I don't mind. I will share my wisdom with the good people of TDF. And for free!

  8. #2398
    Self Defecating The Real Paulus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    I hate to keep repeating myself [...] I will share my wisdom with the good people of TDF. And for free!
    I tried that but the TDF massive didn't seem too welcoming of my wisdom


    I think is't outright Brexism.

  9. #2399
    Old but keen Mark Chase's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisch View Post
    I hate to keep repeating myself but this has to be the outcome. We can import anything we like and not bother with any kind of checks at all. It is only exports that need to be checked as they are subject to whatever import controls the other country places on them. Having softened up the public with all the scaremongering about food shortages the government will declare an emergency and a "temporary" relaxation on all import controls to avoid shortages.

    If we come back to the Britannia Unchained project Professor Minford advocates no import controls or tariffs whatsoever, a unilateral "free market" tariff free free for all. He says this will result in cheaper goods as we can buy any old shit from anywhere that wants shut of it. Logically he is right. The issue is what do we export from here into other markets that are restricted? So for example we will not be able to sell beef as it might be US hormone treated beef and relabelled as UK beef. The EU - as an example - will not buy it. As a result UK meat is almost certainly not going to be exportable. As Professor Minford, the Nobel prize winning economist quite rightly says this will result in the destruction of the UK manufacturing industry, agriculture and fishing. Which he thinks is a bit of a shame but a price worth paying for cheap shit food.

    Clearly there is going to be a problem with the open border in Ireland. So somehow, somewhere along the line, the UK has to compromise. Either the DUP must suck it up and have a customs border in the Irish sea or we - the UK - cannot export to Ireland (Rep of) so the cross border traffic only goes one way. How you stop NI produce crossing the border (especially a live cow in a field) I have no idea. So we cannot. So we cannot let in any old shit as Patrick wants and so we open the border to EU stuff but not the US hormone beef.

    Now we are in a trade dispute with the US as they want to sell us shit beef but we cannot buy it. Trump puts the US first as per his promise to the US public (fair enough) and stops UK exports to the US (on which we make a surplus). So we are really looking at a crash in exports in the short to medium term. As I have said many times with a widening balance of payments deficit and a current account deficit the outcome must - at some point - be a currency crash. A massive fall in our currency value with a virtual ban on exports (which would otherwise benefit from a low value currency) will quickly wipe out the gain from low cost produce bought on the world market versus the current arrangements and quotas.

    This is why Minford is wrong and I am right. But people believe him because he is more famous than me. Fair enough. I don't mind. I will share my wisdom with the good people of TDF. And for free!

    Chris

    Are you sure? I understood you were not allowed to do that under WTO trading rules?

  10. #2400
    Established TDF Member Chrisch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Chase View Post
    Chris

    Are you sure? I understood you were not allowed to do that under WTO trading rules?
    I don't think the Brexit people care much about the WTO any more than they care about UK business. The WTO rules are rather more flexible in the respect that it requires a sanction to enforce them and agreement by other members to bring about that sanction. In the short term the Tories will not care about the WTO, what it thinks or what it's rules are. Trump doesn't (https://www.forbes.com/sites/phillev...-organization/)

    The Minford plan is to unilaterally dispense with any import controls. (https://www.economistsforfreetrade.c...op-economists/) Strictly speaking this puts the UK in conflict with the WTO but in reality provided we treat everyone the same it is OK. Ergo we must confer "most favoured nation" status on the entire world. We can easily do this however as per my post it will mean that we cannot say no to the US beef. If we import US beef we cannot export UK beef. Minford accepts that and as a result forecasts the end of UK farming.

    The border in Ireland is also subject to the same issue. If we open it (or leave it open more exactly) we are treating Ireland and by extension the EU as "most favoured nation" so we must do the same with all the other WTO nations as we have no agreement with the EU. Ergo we must accept US beef and as a result we cannot export UK beef (well to the EU, which is Ireland) so no beef can pass the border but as it is open I really fail to see what we can do other than outlaw beef in Northern Ireland

    We are in very much uncharted waters. A sensible compromise is to leave NI in the EEA or EU. But the DUP will not agree and the majority of the Tories will not agree. So we must leave the UK in the customs union in it's entirety. But the Brexit loons will not agree. So we must close the border, but the Irish and the Northern Irish will not agree. So we must invent a mythical technology that allows some things to cross the border but some things to be prevented crossing the border. This fantasy technology must not physically exist whilst at the same time existing and being effective. Otherwise the UK must agree to stay in the "temporary" customs union of the backstop. Until the fantasy technology is invented.

    I'm not sure WTO rules are anywhere near the top of a long list of fan-shit interface issues which will become reality in 8 weeks time.
    Last edited by Chrisch; 05-02-2019 at 04:37 PM.


 

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