Just heard on Sky News that new Qashqai will go to Sunderland.
That must be good news for the folk of Sunderland, until you remember that it was only a couple of weeks ago that Nissan said the X-Trail would be there too........
IIRC the Qashqai sells well in UK and not a big seller in the rest of the EU. Given the amount sunk into the plant it would make sense to continue to build at least something for the next few years. Plus the Tories' bung of 80 million must help
Tempting as it is to wish ill on the turkeys in their quest for xmas I really don't want to see the UK close down all it's manufacturing. Sadly I fear whatever happens the polarity of the debate will continue with both sides claiming "victory" such as it is.
So under a no deal Brexit - lorries to be waved through Dover
taking back control
Rebreathers are like women; they pretend to love you, whilst taking all your money and trying to kill you.
If we come back to the Britannia Unchained project Professor Minford advocates no import controls or tariffs whatsoever, a unilateral "free market" tariff free free for all. He says this will result in cheaper goods as we can buy any old shit from anywhere that wants shut of it. Logically he is right. The issue is what do we export from here into other markets that are restricted? So for example we will not be able to sell beef as it might be US hormone treated beef and relabelled as UK beef. The EU - as an example - will not buy it. As a result UK meat is almost certainly not going to be exportable. As Professor Minford, the Nobel prize winning economist quite rightly says this will result in the destruction of the UK manufacturing industry, agriculture and fishing. Which he thinks is a bit of a shame but a price worth paying for cheap shit food.
Clearly there is going to be a problem with the open border in Ireland. So somehow, somewhere along the line, the UK has to compromise. Either the DUP must suck it up and have a customs border in the Irish sea or we - the UK - cannot export to Ireland (Rep of) so the cross border traffic only goes one way. How you stop NI produce crossing the border (especially a live cow in a field) I have no idea. So we cannot. So we cannot let in any old shit as Patrick wants and so we open the border to EU stuff but not the US hormone beef.
Now we are in a trade dispute with the US as they want to sell us shit beef but we cannot buy it. Trump puts the US first as per his promise to the US public (fair enough) and stops UK exports to the US (on which we make a surplus). So we are really looking at a crash in exports in the short to medium term. As I have said many times with a widening balance of payments deficit and a current account deficit the outcome must - at some point - be a currency crash. A massive fall in our currency value with a virtual ban on exports (which would otherwise benefit from a low value currency) will quickly wipe out the gain from low cost produce bought on the world market versus the current arrangements and quotas.
This is why Minford is wrong and I am right. But people believe him because he is more famous than me. Fair enough. I don't mind. I will share my wisdom with the good people of TDF. And for free!
The Minford plan is to unilaterally dispense with any import controls. (https://www.economistsforfreetrade.c...op-economists/) Strictly speaking this puts the UK in conflict with the WTO but in reality provided we treat everyone the same it is OK. Ergo we must confer "most favoured nation" status on the entire world. We can easily do this however as per my post it will mean that we cannot say no to the US beef. If we import US beef we cannot export UK beef. Minford accepts that and as a result forecasts the end of UK farming.
The border in Ireland is also subject to the same issue. If we open it (or leave it open more exactly) we are treating Ireland and by extension the EU as "most favoured nation" so we must do the same with all the other WTO nations as we have no agreement with the EU. Ergo we must accept US beef and as a result we cannot export UK beef (well to the EU, which is Ireland) so no beef can pass the border but as it is open I really fail to see what we can do other than outlaw beef in Northern Ireland
We are in very much uncharted waters. A sensible compromise is to leave NI in the EEA or EU. But the DUP will not agree and the majority of the Tories will not agree. So we must leave the UK in the customs union in it's entirety. But the Brexit loons will not agree. So we must close the border, but the Irish and the Northern Irish will not agree. So we must invent a mythical technology that allows some things to cross the border but some things to be prevented crossing the border. This fantasy technology must not physically exist whilst at the same time existing and being effective. Otherwise the UK must agree to stay in the "temporary" customs union of the backstop. Until the fantasy technology is invented.
I'm not sure WTO rules are anywhere near the top of a long list of fan-shit interface issues which will become reality in 8 weeks time.
Last edited by Chrisch; 05-02-2019 at 03:37 PM.